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The more he talks about trust, the faster I count my silvers - George Soros

Economy

CrossRoads

Monday, January 18th, 2010

I have been thinking about this a long time but never managed to drum up enough enthusiasm to write it up. But there is something about today being the Martin Luther King Day that finally pushed me to write this blog.

USA is at cross roads.

As an outsider I always found USA confusing, for e.g. (Like rest of the world) things like opposition to the gun control law or willingness to continue the death penalty. What is it with these people who refuse to see the obvious and at the least ban guns?

A few days back, someone reminded me that USA is a republic. This provoked me to think further and very soon there was light.

Now I can see very clearly the basic philosophy that drives this country (or used to drive this country).

It is everyone’s right to work hard and get rewarded for it. It is everyone’s right to earn fabulous sums of money and enjoy their wealth. However, there will always be a group of people who do not want to work hard but still wish to get rewarded. In this case, it is everyone’s right to take up arms and protect themselves and if possible dispatch such people to the death row.

It is this philosophy that allowed son of a truck driver to earn the riches (read Starbucks).

It is this philosophy that enabled this country to shoot up to the nadir of wealth and power.

However, this philosophy works if and only if everyone has a chance to make it big.

This has not been the case for a long time but very few people could see this clearly.

The reality hit home after the bank bailout.

Suddenly people understood that there is now an elite class firmly entrenched in this country and however hard they might work, it is becoming difficult for other’s to join the ranks.

This is why Obama got elected; this is why he could muster support even in traditional republican alias.

This is why this country is seeing incessant demand for socialistic welfare policies.

I suppose socialistic welfare policies are an eventual certainty for any civilization that has risen to the riches.

Has this country arrived at the crossroad?

I don’t know which road we are taking.

All this discussion is not an empty theoretical debate.  What I am trying to guess is that which stocks to go long on and here is where it gets confusing for me.

I think if we see hints of de-globalization then go for small and medium companies.

If we do not see such hints then go for large corporations.

What do you think? Any comments?

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Why stagflation is a real possibility for USA

Thursday, October 1st, 2009

I am quite surprised that no one really talks about stagflation danger faced by USA.

 
"Pimco’s Gross Buys Treasuries Amid Deflation Concern "
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aEHQiqgK1vdQ
 
I understand that Gross is only making a hedge. However, I do feel that he like most of the other people fails to take stagflation seriously.
 
The stagflation scenario will come true if USA starts sinking into the deflationary environment but not rest of the world.
 
Not that I blame him. A lot of people in the western countries miss the perspective.
 
Born in 1968 I grew up in a 2-bedroom home that accommodated twelve people. Eating ice-cream was a once every six months luxury. We had to bring the manual ice-cream maker pot and take turn one by one to rotate the handle. After an hour when the ice-cream was ready the whole household used to crash on the pot to get the share of ice-cream. And believe me, we were not really worse-off compared to rest of the population. At least we had a black and white TV starting around 1975 or so.
 
Things started changing around 1980 which (now) I know was thanks to Ronald Reagan.
 
Compare this with today where the twelve people in this generation have about two bedrooms per head. And believe me, as a family, no one is going to call us rich; we are at the most upper-middle class. The bad news is that we are (I guess) in the top 20-30% of the population.
 
There is a 70% slice of Indian population that is struggling to increase their standard of living and hence eagerly waiting to consume commodities.
 
Add China to this equation and estimate the demand on commodities.
 
Westerners do not realize the immense population pressure and the insane demand on commodities that is going to come as more and more people in the third world countries start improving their standard of living.
 
So on one hand we have falling salaries and economic activity in USA and on the other hand USA will be paying higher and higher price for imported commodities.
 
People fail to understand that mankind has already passed population threshold for supporting a decent standard of living for everyone.
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Buy bull ETF if you must

Thursday, May 21st, 2009
So I bought FAZ and BGZ as explained over here The whole equation. I am still convinced that I am right, one can already see the signs that Chinese stimulus is not working as expected China cheerleading gives way to caution on economy.  However, unfortunately, now, I have realized that though my gut feeling on economy is correct. I have made a huge mistake in chosing the vehicle i.e. FAZ (and to a certain extent BGZ). I saw the light after I managed to earn myself a big paper loss after the &^*^&^* recent Indian elections. Though I am at a loss to understand why Indian elections motivated US traders to buy stock, I did realized that there is something fishy about this whole 3X leveraged funds. So naturally I started investigating this “decay” problem and what I found out was fascinating. There is something else that happens with FAZ, even if the underlying stocks go down the FAZ will end up in the red if there are a few violent upswings in between. [Disclaimer: I do not have background in mathematics but on the other hand I do have a background in common-sense] We will begin with easy and well-known examples: Let us assume an initial investment of USD 100 in 3X bear ETF. Let us also assumes that FAZ fluctuates by 5% every day, either up or down. (Note that FAZ is a bear ETF so the factor will be opposite, if market goes up then FAZ goes down and vice-versa) Scenario 1: Market is moving side ways
  Day factor Investment
      100.00
  1 10 110.00
  2 -10 99.00
  3 10 108.90
  4 -10 98.01
  5 10 107.81
  6 -10 97.03
  7 10 106.73
  8 -10 96.06
  9 10 105.67
  10 -10 95.10
       
  Net 0 -4.90
Conclusion: I lose Scenario 2: Market plunges and then recovers
  Day factor Investment
      100.00
  1 90 190.00
  2 -10 171.00
  3 -10 153.90
  4 -10 138.51
  5 -10 124.66
  6 -10 112.19
  7 -10 100.97
  8 -10 90.88
  9 -10 81.79
  10 -10 73.61
       
  Net 0 -26.39
Conclusion: I still lose Scenario 3: Market has a bull run and then drops gradually  
  Day factor Investment
      100.00
  1 -90 10.00
  2 10 11.00
  3 10 12.10
  4 10 13.31
  5 10 14.64
  6 10 16.11
  7 10 17.72
  8 10 19.49
  9 10 21.44
  10 10 23.58
       
  Net 0 -76.42
Conclusion: My wife leaves me   Scenario 4: Market mostly goes down and recovers 50%
  Day factor Investment
      100.00
  1 90 190.00
  2 10 209.00
  3 -10 188.10
  4 -10 169.29
  5 -10 152.36
  6 -10 137.12
  7 -10 123.41
  8 -10 111.07
  9 -10 99.96
  10 10 109.96
       
  Net 40 9.96
Conclusion: Give it up, for all this risk I am not earning that much. So what is the final conclusion? There are only three ways one can win in ETF 1) At the end of the day, get the xxxx out of there (unless you are sure that the market is going to move in one paritcular direction the next day). 2) If market keeps on going in one direction over a period of time. 3) Hold a bull ETF for a really really really long period. Some day you will have to make money. Bear ETF always loses over long period because value of money goes down (unless one is very lucky and bought bear ETF at the top of market in Japan.) Hmm…. this got me thinking..there are a few ways a big boy can easily manipulate these 3x ETF. Can you figure out how? I am quite sure that banks are not going to plunge today or tomorrow. So I am outta here, thank god I saw the light early and did not manage to lose my xxxxx in FAZ Lesson: ETF is for day trading. If one is betting on something that has even a short term horizon of a month or two, ETF will still bite you. even LEAP will give you euqal returns with limited risks.
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